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Apie akcijų rinką Lietuvoje. VVPB

Nors pasaulio biržos jau, rodos, spėjo aprimti, Lietuva kaip visada paskutinė į traukinį. Tie, kas truputį domisi finansų rinkų naujienomis pastebėjo, kad jau trečią dieną riedame stačiai nuo kalno, o OMXV pasiekė šių metų dugną. Bet šiandien aš ne apie tai. Norėjau aptarti, kaip atrodo šiuo metu VVPB (Vilniaus vertybinių popierių birža) ir joje kotiruojamos įmonių akcijos.
Vilniaus birža iš esmės yra gera vieta pasitreniruoti investuoti į akcijas – svyravimai gana nemaži, yra daugelio ūkio šakų akcijos. Tačiau kaip atrodo bendras vaizdelis?
Pradėsiu nuo stipriausių ir, mano nuomone, tvirčiausių pozicijų šioje rinkoje. Čia karalius, žinoma, TEO (TEO1L). Akcijos kaina jau nekyla keletą metų, tačiau tinkama pozicija užsidirbti visai solidžius dividendus (22-27ct priklausomai nuo metų). Grubiai skaičiuojant susidaro maždaug 11% pajamingumas. Visai neblogai! Tiesa, pastovaus augimo šioje pozicijoje nėra, tad verčiau tikėtis tik dividendų.
Toliau kaip geras ilgalaikes investicijas įvertinčiau Invaldos (IVL1L) ir Ūkio banko (UKB1L) akcijas. Invalda patraukli tuo, kad jungia platų įmonių spektrą ir vadovybė sugeba greitai ir pagaudami geras tendencijas organizuoti savo įmonių grupės struktūrą. Anksčiau orientavusi į NT, laiku iš ten pasitraukė ir dabar kiek patraukė link IT. Todėl plėtros galimybės ir perspektyvos taip valdomai kompanijai tikrai neblogos. Dėl Ūkio banko situacija kiek kita – mano nuomone, tai tiesiog neįvertinta labai likvidi akcija, kuriai prognozuoju šviesią ateitį būtent dėl gerų finansinių rodiklių ir spartaus augimo. Net 2008 I ketv. augimas nebuvo suletėjęs – tai geras ženklas. Bendrai apie šias pozicijas turiu nuomonę, kad ilgam laikotarpyje jos generuos iki 15% metinį vertės prieaugį (ypač įvertinant dabartines kainas). Geras perspektyvas turi ir Lifosa (LFO1L), tačiau šią akciją patariu žiūrėti atsargiai – jos kaina gera, tačiau svyravimai vieni didžiausių biržoje.
Kas gi yra VVPB uodegoje? Tiesa sakant, kompanijų yra daugiau nei norėtųsi, kad būtų. Visų pirma turėčiau įvardinti baldininkus, šaldytuvus ir prie bankroto ribos atsidūrusias (pvz. Linas). Tokios kompanijos iš principo teršia biržos sąrašą – apyvarta akcijomis minimali, vadovybės skaidrumas abejotinas, perspektyvos taip pat miglotos. Kyla minčių, kad galimas ir bankroto pavojus – o juk tokiu atveju akcininkai lieka prie suskilusios geldos. Asmeniškai aš atsargiau vertinu ir šias akcijas: Vilniaus degtinė (VDG1L), Lietuvos jūrų laivininkystė (LJL1L), Lietuvos dujas (LDJ1L) ir kitas, kurių apyvarta kasdien tesudaro iki 5.000 Lt, o sandorių skaičių gali suskaičiuoti ant rankos pirštų.
Kaip gi sekasi naujai išleistom į VVPB akcijom: City Service (CTY1L) ir Agrowill (AVG1L)? Tiesa sakant, kaip ir IPO (viešas platinimas) metu, taip ir dabar į jas žiūriu skeptiškai – stambių akcininkų nepritraukė, todėl smulkiesiems taip pat nėra didelių galimybių pelnui. Juolab, kad pajamingumas tikrai menkas. Galbūt todėl ir neskubama organizuoti naujų IPO į rinką.
Bendrai apie VVPB galiu pasakyti tiek, kad situacija blogėja – didesnių investuotojų nėra, akcijų likvidumas krenta, o kai kurios įmonės imasi ne itin skaidrių metodų akcijų kainoms koreguoti (abiem kryptim). Visgi nedidelėm sumom tai puiki smėlio dėžė, o uždirbti galima visai neblogai.
Beje, čia surašiau tik savo nuomonę ir nerekomenduoju pirkti/parduoti būtent šias akcijas. Tiesiog atkreipti į jas dėmesį galima. :) Sėkmingo investavimo!

Jūsų, AF Patarėjas.

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Komentarai (48)

  1. AFpatarejas:

    Nera uz ka.
    Tiesiog isreiskiu savo nuomone, kuri, beje, nera nei teisinga, nei neteisinga. Laikas parodys. :)

  2. Draugas:

    neisgidau nieko blogo ir nieko gero apie ptr ;)

  3. AFpatarejas:

    Statybų sektorius šiuo metu atskira tema. ;)

  4. mindaugas:

    Viena iš Invaldos įmonių (baldininkai) "iš principo teršia biržos sąrašą,vadovybės skaidrumas abejotinas, perspektyvos taip pat miglotos", o prieš tai Invaldos akcijas vertinat kaip "geras ilgalaikes investicijas".Nors ir valdo Invalda įvairias įmones, bet nemanau, kad valdydama vieną iš biržos šiukšlių,Invalda verta didelio dėmesio.

  5. AFpatarejas:

    Dėl bendro įmonės vertinimo sutikčiau, tačiau esu investuotojas, todėl labiau domina pačios akcijos pozicija. O ji mano požiūriu yra gera - likvidi, esant kritimui turi stiprų palaikymą (nesakysiu iš kur ;) ), o rinkai kylant - kyla kartu. Jau nekalbant apie gerus finansinius rodiklius grupės mastu ir verslo portfelį.

  6. Anonimas:

    labai noreciau paklausti kaip reikia nusipirkti akciju vilniaus vertybiniu popieriu birzos svetaineje?

  7. Dažniau biržos makleriai rašytu apie blogas ir geras įmones,žmonės apsisprestu ka jiems daryti.
    mane domina akcijos norėciau konsultacijos
    ele.pašt.
    romualda.miau@gmail.com

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